[Weekly Review of Nickel Ore Market] Post-Holiday Active Trading in Indonesian Domestic Trade Laterite Nickel Ore with Rising Premiums

Published: Feb 7, 2025 17:33

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Philippine Nickel Ore FOB Transaction Prices Rise, Prices May Fluctuate Upward; Post-Holiday Trading of Indonesian Domestic Trade Laterite Ore Becomes Active, Premiums Increase.

Philippine Nickel Ore FOB Transaction Prices Rise, Prices May Fluctuate Upward
During the week, the FOB prices of medium-grade Philippine nickel ore rose again after the Chinese New Year, while the low-nickel high-iron market remained inactive. For medium- and high-grade nickel ore, after the Chinese New Year, multiple factors such as the increase in domestic trade ore premiums in Indonesia and speculation on Philippine nickel ore policies led to a noticeable sentiment to stand firm on quotes from Philippine mines. The Erman mine's quoted transaction FOB prices rose again.

Supply side: Major mining areas in the southern Philippines are still in the rainy season, with limited supply in the off-season and fewer mine tenders in the Philippine nickel ore market. Domestic port arrivals of Philippine nickel ore remained low, and port inventory continued destocking.

Demand side: Although the slight rise in downstream nickel pig iron (NPI) prices brought some profit recovery, the increase was less than that of raw material prices. Domestic NPI plants continued to face losses and mainly maintained just-in-time procurement, with limited acceptance of high-priced nickel ore.

Ocean freight rate: The freight rate for nickel ore from the Philippines to Lianyungang was $7-8/mt, and from the Philippines to Tianjin Port was $8-9/mt. After the adjustment caused by the shift in shipping origins before the holiday, freight rates remained unchanged this week.

In summary, after the Chinese New Year, Philippine nickel ore prices are expected to fluctuate upward.

Indonesian Laterite Domestic Trade Ore Active Post-Holiday, Premiums Rise
Supply side: In January, Indonesia officially announced that the approved RKAB quota for 2025 currently stands at 2.98 billion wmt. The overall supply of nickel ore in Indonesia remains relatively ample, promoting active market transactions.

Demand side: In February, there was significant restocking demand from Indonesian pyrometallurgical plants, and post-holiday downstream NPI and stainless steel prices saw some increases, leading to partial profit recovery.

Inventory: As of the Chinese New Year, most Indonesian pyrometallurgical plants had inventory levels sufficient for half a month to one month.

Additionally, the February HPM benchmark price was reduced by $0.68, but the absolute price of ore is on an upward trend. The market holds strong expectations for a rise in premiums for Indonesian domestic trade ore in February. Currently, the mainstream premium for 1.6-grade ore is $17-18.

In conclusion, SMM expects that, influenced by policy uncertainties and post-holiday stocking demand from downstream sectors, Indonesian nickel ore prices still have some room for growth. However, due to relatively ample supply following the approval of quotas in H1, there has been no significant structural change in the balance of Indonesian nickel ore. The price increase for Indonesian domestic trade ore may be relatively limited. The policy stance in Indonesia and the progress of temporary quota issuance will continue to have a significant impact on future nickel ore prices.

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